8010試験無料問題集「PRMIA Operational Risk Manager (ORM) 認定」
A bank extends a loan of $1m to a home buyer to buy a house currently worth $1.5m, with the house serving as the collateral. The volatility of returns (assumed normally distributed) on house prices in that neighborhood is assessed at 10% annually. The expected probability of default of the home buyer is 5%.
What is the probability that the bank will recover less than the principal advanced on this loan; assuming the probability of the home buyer's default is independent of the value of the house?
What is the probability that the bank will recover less than the principal advanced on this loan; assuming the probability of the home buyer's default is independent of the value of the house?
正解：B
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Whichof the following statements are true in relation to Historical Simulation VaR?
I. Historical Simulation VaR assumes returns are normally distributed but have fat tails II. It uses full revaluation, as opposed to delta or delta-gamma approximations III. Acorrelation matrix is constructed using historical scenarios IV. It particularly suits new products that may not have a long time series of historical data available
I. Historical Simulation VaR assumes returns are normally distributed but have fat tails II. It uses full revaluation, as opposed to delta or delta-gamma approximations III. Acorrelation matrix is constructed using historical scenarios IV. It particularly suits new products that may not have a long time series of historical data available
正解：A
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Calculate the 1-year 99% credit VaR of a portfolio of two bonds, each with a value of $1m, and the probability of default of 1% each over the next year. Assume the recovery rate to be zero, and the defaults of the two bonds to be uncorrelated to each other.
正解：A
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Which of the following statements are true:
I. Credit VaR often assumes a one year time horizon, as opposed to a shorter time horizon for market risk as credit activities generally span alonger time period.
II. Credit losses in the banking book should be assessed on the basis of mark-to-market mode as opposed to the default-only mode.
III. The confidence level used in the calculation of credit capital is high when the objective is tomaintain a high credit rating for the institution.
IV. Credit capital calculations for securities with liquid markets and held for proprietary positions should be based on marking positions to market.
I. Credit VaR often assumes a one year time horizon, as opposed to a shorter time horizon for market risk as credit activities generally span alonger time period.
II. Credit losses in the banking book should be assessed on the basis of mark-to-market mode as opposed to the default-only mode.
III. The confidence level used in the calculation of credit capital is high when the objective is tomaintain a high credit rating for the institution.
IV. Credit capital calculations for securities with liquid markets and held for proprietary positions should be based on marking positions to market.
正解：C
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Which of the following statements are true:
I. Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the parties to a contract might default prior to the maturity date or expiry of the contract.
II. Pre-settlement risk can be partly mitigated by providing for early settlement in the agreements between the counterparties.
III. The current exposure from an OTC derivatives contract is equivalent to its current replacement value.
IV. Loan equivalent exposures are calculated even for exposures that are not loans as a practical matter for calculating credit risk exposure.
I. Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the parties to a contract might default prior to the maturity date or expiry of the contract.
II. Pre-settlement risk can be partly mitigated by providing for early settlement in the agreements between the counterparties.
III. The current exposure from an OTC derivatives contract is equivalent to its current replacement value.
IV. Loan equivalent exposures are calculated even for exposures that are not loans as a practical matter for calculating credit risk exposure.
正解：C
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If two bonds with identical credit ratings, coupon and maturity but from different issuers trade at different spreads to treasury rates, which of the following is a possible explanation:
I. The bonds differ in liquidity
II. Events have happened that have changed investor perceptions but these are not yet reflected in the ratings III. The bonds carry different market risk IV. The bonds differ in their convexity
I. The bonds differ in liquidity
II. Events have happened that have changed investor perceptions but these are not yet reflected in the ratings III. The bonds carry different market risk IV. The bonds differ in their convexity
正解：C
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Which of the following statements are true:
I. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is equal to the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
II. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is less than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
III. The sum of unexpected losses forindividual loans in a portfolio is greater than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
IV. The unexpected loss for the portfolio is driven by the unexpected losses of the individual loans in the portfolio and the default correlation between these loans.
I. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is equal to the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
II. The sum of unexpected losses for individual loans in a portfolio is less than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
III. The sum of unexpected losses forindividual loans in a portfolio is greater than the total unexpected loss for the portfolio.
IV. The unexpected loss for the portfolio is driven by the unexpected losses of the individual loans in the portfolio and the default correlation between these loans.
正解：B
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Which of the following risks and reasons justify the use of scenario analysis in operational riskmodeling:
I. Risks for which no internal loss data is available
II. Risks that are foreseeable but have no precedent, internally or externally III. Risks for which objective assessments can be made by experts IV. Risks that are known to exist, but for which no reliable external or internal losses can be analyzed
V. Reducing the complexity of having to fit statistical models to internal and external loss data VI. Managing the capital estimation process as to produce estimates in line with management's desired capital buffers.
I. Risks for which no internal loss data is available
II. Risks that are foreseeable but have no precedent, internally or externally III. Risks for which objective assessments can be made by experts IV. Risks that are known to exist, but for which no reliable external or internal losses can be analyzed
V. Reducing the complexity of having to fit statistical models to internal and external loss data VI. Managing the capital estimation process as to produce estimates in line with management's desired capital buffers.
正解：B
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Which of the following are valid approaches to leveraging external loss data for modeling operational risks:
I. Both internal and external losses can be fitted with distributions,and a weighted average approach using these distributions is relied upon for capital calculations.
II. External loss data is used to inform scenario modeling.
III. External loss data is combined with internal loss data points, and distributions fitted to the combined data set.
IV. External loss data is used to replace internal loss data points to create a higher quality data set to fit distributions.
I. Both internal and external losses can be fitted with distributions,and a weighted average approach using these distributions is relied upon for capital calculations.
II. External loss data is used to inform scenario modeling.
III. External loss data is combined with internal loss data points, and distributions fitted to the combined data set.
IV. External loss data is used to replace internal loss data points to create a higher quality data set to fit distributions.
正解：D
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